Ferrari threw away Lewis Hamilton's Mexico podium with one bad call

Hamilton had the pace to finish third. Instead, Ferrari panicked into a second stop he didn't need and dropped him to eighth.

Lewis Hamilton was faster than Lando Norris. Not by a little — across 71 laps in the thin air of Mexico City, Hamilton's average pace was 0.16 seconds quicker than the race winner. Norris finished first. Hamilton finished eighth.

Key Finding

Hamilton was faster than Norris all race but finished 56 seconds behind because Ferrari stopped twice while McLaren stopped once.

Ferrari stopped twice. McLaren stopped once.

HAM vs NOR — tyre strategy across 71 laps

The red bars show Hamilton's three stints. The yellow shows Norris ran to lap 34 on softs, then mediums to the flag.

HAM: S→M→S | NOR: S→M

Key Finding

Hamilton was faster than Norris all race but finished 56 seconds behind because Ferrari stopped twice while McLaren stopped once.

The difference was not the car. It was not the driver. It was one decision on lap 47, when Ferrari brought Hamilton in for a second stop he did not need.

Norris made his medium tyres last 37 laps to the chequered flag. Hamilton's mediums were stopped after 24. The degradation data shows why that was indefensible: Hamilton's mediums were wearing at 0.001 seconds per lap. Norris's mediums were degrading ten times faster, at 0.043 seconds per lap. Ferrari pulled the faster-wearing driver off worse tyres to put the slower-wearing driver on fresh rubber.

Key Finding

Hamilton was faster than Norris all race but finished 56 seconds behind because Ferrari stopped twice while McLaren stopped once.

By the time Hamilton pitted on lap 47, he was running seventh — having served a ten-second penalty earlier in the race for a track limits infringement. The mediums had 24 laps on them and were not falling off. The next phase of the race was 24 laps long.

Ferrari's calculation must have been that fresh softs would allow Hamilton to cut through traffic and recover positions. That miscalculated two things: the penalty had already cost him track position, and the high degradation on those final-stint softs — 0.329 seconds per lap — meant any tyre offset advantage disappeared inside ten laps.

The gap exploded after Ferrari's second stop

HAM vs NOR — gap between them on every lap

The spike on lap 47 is Hamilton's unnecessary pit. From there, the race was over — Norris extended the lead by another 16 seconds.

HAM aheadNOR ahead

Final gap: NOR ahead by 56.5s.

Key Finding

Hamilton was faster than Norris all race but finished 56 seconds behind because Ferrari stopped twice while McLaren stopped once.

Meanwhile, Norris — who started on pole and led the opening phase — made his single stop on lap 34, bolted on mediums, and controlled the race to the flag. No heroics. No tyre management drama. McLaren trusted the data, extended the stint, and Norris brought it home.

Hamilton's final stint averaged 82.47 seconds per lap. His middle stint on mediums averaged 82.37. Ferrari gained a tenth per lap and lost five positions.

Key Finding

Hamilton was faster than Norris all race but finished 56 seconds behind because Ferrari stopped twice while McLaren stopped once.

Max Verstappen finished third with one stop. Charles Leclerc finished second with one stop. Oliver Bearman finished fourth with two stops, but he started ninth and had no penalty to recover from — his strategy made sense.

Hamilton had the underlying pace for a podium. Ferrari needed him to do one thing: stay out. At São Paulo, if Ferrari find themselves in another marginal tyre window, the correct decision is the one they didn't make here — trust the deg data and let the stint run.

Jamie Carver

@@jamiecarver_f1

Tap to continue