Ferrari threw away a win with the wrong tyre call

Charles Leclerc was nine-tenths faster than Max Verstappen. He finished 23 seconds behind him.

Charles Leclerc was nine-tenths faster than Max Verstappen across 58 laps in Abu Dhabi. He finished fourth, 23 seconds behind the race winner. Someone on the pit wall needs to explain how that happened.

Key Finding

Leclerc's second stop was completely unnecessary — the hard tyre had another 19 laps left in it.

One driver stopped once. The other stopped twice.

LEC vs VER — tyre strategy across 58 laps

Leclerc's third stint on mediums — laps 40 to 58 — is where Ferrari lost this race.

LEC: M→H→M | VER: M→H

Key Finding

Leclerc's second stop was completely unnecessary — the hard tyre had another 19 laps left in it.

Ferrari brought Leclerc in for a second stop on lap 39. Verstappen stayed out on his hard tyres and ran to the end. That's the entire story.

The decision would make sense if Leclerc's hard tyres were gone. They weren't. His degradation rate on the hards was minus 0.058 seconds per lap — the tyres were actually getting faster as the stint went on. Verstappen's hards, by contrast, were degrading at +0.007 seconds per lap. Leclerc had the better tyre, and Ferrari took him off it.

The gap exploded after Leclerc's second stop

LEC vs VER — gap between them on every lap

The spike at lap 39 is the pit stop. From there, Verstappen extended the gap by a second per lap.

LEC aheadVER ahead

Final gap: VER ahead by 23.3s.

Key Finding

Leclerc's second stop was completely unnecessary — the hard tyre had another 19 laps left in it.

Leclerc rejoined on fresh mediums 19 seconds behind Verstappen. To make the strategy work, he needed to gain a second per lap on 35-lap-old hard tyres. He didn't. The gap grew.

Worse: Leclerc's final stint on mediums degraded at +0.071 seconds per lap — eight times worse than the hard tyre stint Ferrari pulled him out of. The fresh rubber advantage lasted maybe five laps, then disappeared. By lap 50, Leclerc was losing time, not gaining it.

Key Finding

Leclerc's second stop was completely unnecessary — the hard tyre had another 19 laps left in it.

This wasn't a marginal call. Ferrari had the faster car — Leclerc's race pace average was nearly a second quicker than Verstappen's. The hard tyre was working. They needed to leave him out, let the one-stopper play out, and trust that 23 laps on hards was enough to cover Verstappen's 35.

Instead, they panicked. They saw Verstappen extend a gap and reacted. The second stop was unnecessary, and it cost them a podium at minimum. At the next race — wherever that is — Ferrari needs to stop copying what the car ahead is doing and start dictating.

Jamie Carver

@@jamiecarver_f1

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