McLaren threw away 22 seconds with the wrong tyre call

Lando Norris had the fastest car in Baku by nearly two seconds. He finished fourth because McLaren put him on the wrong compound at the wrong time.

Lando Norris had the fastest car in Baku. Not by a little — by 1.8 seconds over race distance. He finished fourth, 36 seconds behind his teammate. McLaren managed to lose a race they should have won with the slower car.

Key Finding

Norris was 1.8 seconds faster than Piastri over race distance but finished 36 seconds behind him — the medium tyre on lap 37 killed his race.

One team ran the obvious strategy. The other didn't.

NOR vs PIA — tyre strategy across 51 laps

Piastri's hard tyre lasted 36 laps to the end. Norris ran the hard for 37 laps, then switched to a compound that was always going to struggle.

NOR: H→M | PIA: M→H

Key Finding

Norris was 1.8 seconds faster than Piastri over race distance but finished 36 seconds behind him — the medium tyre on lap 37 killed his race.

Piastri stopped on lap 15, bolted on the hards, and drove to the flag. The degradation rate was effectively zero — negative 0.014 seconds per lap. The tyre got faster as fuel load came off. It was the perfect call for Baku's long straights and minimal low-speed corners.

Norris started on that same hard compound and ran it for 37 laps. Then McLaren brought him in and put him on mediums with 14 laps to go. On a 44-degree track. In the final stint of a race where track position is everything.

The gap exploded the moment Norris switched tyres

NOR vs PIA — gap between them on every lap

Watch lap 37 — that vertical jump is the pit stop. Norris never recovered. The gap went from 3 seconds to 36 in 14 laps.

NOR aheadPIA ahead

Final gap: PIA ahead by 36.1s.

Key Finding

Norris was 1.8 seconds faster than Piastri over race distance but finished 36 seconds behind him — the medium tyre on lap 37 killed his race.

The medium tyre degraded at 0.728 seconds per lap. The hard was stable. Norris was losing three-quarters of a second every tour just from compound choice, and he was never close enough to anyone ahead to pressure them into a mistake.

His average lap time on the mediums was 107.31 seconds. Piastri's average on the hards for the same phase of the race was 107.71. Norris had the faster car and the slower lap times because McLaren put him on a tyre that couldn't hold pace in Baku heat.

Key Finding

Norris was 1.8 seconds faster than Piastri over race distance but finished 36 seconds behind him — the medium tyre on lap 37 killed his race.

This wasn't a marginal call. Piastri had already proven the hard tyre would last. Norris had 37 laps of data showing it was the right compound. There was no reason to switch except fear — fear the tyre would fall off, fear they'd get undercut, fear of doing nothing.

They reacted when they should have trusted the plan. It cost them 22 seconds and a one-two finish.

Key Finding

Norris was 1.8 seconds faster than Piastri over race distance but finished 36 seconds behind him — the medium tyre on lap 37 killed his race.

Singapore is two weeks away. The track is slower, the degradation is higher, and the margin for a bad tyre call is even smaller. McLaren have the fastest car in the field right now. They need to stop overthinking it.

Jamie Carver

@@jamiecarver_f1

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